With the 2026 midterm elections approaching, Democrats are gaining ground—or running virtually even—in several key Senate races that could determine control of the chamber.
A new New York Times/Siena poll, conducted September 21 through October 1, shows Democrats leading in three of five closely watched contests while essentially tying Republicans in two others.
The polling found Democrats ahead by 6 points in Texas, 7 points in Alaska, and 3 points in Ohio. Republicans led by just 1 point in Iowa, while Kansas was tied. Because the margins in Ohio, Iowa, and Kansas fall within the polls' margins of error, those races are effectively dead heats.
The survey included 2,946 likely voters across the five states, with an overall margin of error of plus or minus 2.1 percentage points.
Economic Concerns Could Shape the Vote
The numbers come as voters continue to express concerns about inflation and the cost of living—issues that could have a major impact on Republican candidates heading into November.
The poll also found weak presidential approval numbers across all five states. President Donald Trump's approval ranged from 38 to 41 percent, while his disapproval ranged from 55 to 60 percent.
Independents were particularly negative, with only 27 percent approving of Trump's job performance compared with 71 percent who disapproved.
Other recent polling has highlighted the economy as a major vulnerability for Republicans. An AP-NORC poll found that only 26 percent of Americans approved of Trump's handling of the economy, while roughly 65 percent blamed his policies for high prices.
A Senate Majority at Stake
The Republican Party currently holds a 53-seat Senate majority, meaning Democrats need to make significant gains to take control of the chamber.
With traditionally Republican states such as Texas, Alaska, Kansas, and Iowa becoming increasingly competitive, the 2026 midterms are shaping up to be a major test of voter sentiment on the economy, inflation, presidential leadership, and the direction of the country.
For Republicans, the warning signs are clear: economic dissatisfaction and weak enthusiasm could put even traditionally safe Senate seats in play.
The November elections will reveal whether Democrats can turn these polling gains into actual victories—or whether Republicans can rally their base and hold the Senate.
